Consumer confidence rises following period of ‘nervousness’

After two months of decline during a period of “nervousness”, consumer confidence increased by three points in November, according to GfK’s most recent Consumer Confidence Index.

The overall measure of consumer confidence increased to –18, up from –21 in October and –20 in September, while all other measures covering personal financial expectations and the wider economy have also registered small increases.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, says consumer confidence declined in recent months as people contemplated the “potentially worrying” impact of the UK Budget and US presidential election. However those events have now passed and the biggest change this month is in major purchase intentions, which jumped five points from -16 to -21 in the run-up to Black Friday (29 November) next week.

Yet, as 2025 comes to an end, Bellamy warns it’s “too early” to expect significant further improvements in the consumer mood.

“As recent data shows, inflation has yet to be tamed, people are still feeling acute cost of living pressures and it will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of ‘change’,” he says.

Looking back at their personal finances over the last year, consumers are more positive than they were last month, with this score up one point to –9. While that remains in negative figures, it is seven points higher than this time last year.

The forecast for personal finances over the next 12 months is up one point at -1, which is two points higher than this time last year.

Consumers are also more optimistic towards the general economic situation over the past 12 months, up three points at –39 from last month and 10 points higher than in November 2023.

Expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months are up two points to -26, the same as November 2023.